- Bitcoin experienced a nearly 5% increase after weak U.S. jobs statistics.
- The dovish Fed meeting outcomes suggest that the U.S. dollar’s recent climb peaked, which is good news for cryptocurrencies, according to Coinbase analysts.
Friday saw a surge in cryptocurrency values, driven by a rise in bitcoin (BTC), raising expectations that the worst of the decline may be behind us.
In the US morning, Bitcoin experienced an almost 5% increase, briefly surpassing $62,000, as a result of a less optimistic US job report for April that allayed fears of rising interest rates. As of this writing, the price of bitcoin was $61,600, up 4.4% from the previous day and outpacing the 3% gain made by the CoinDesk 20 Index (CD20) for the entire market.
During that time, Ethereum (ETH) gained 3% and recaptured the $3,000 mark, while the three largest cryptocurrencies—Dogecoin (DOGE), Shiba inu (SHIB), and Near Protocol’s NEAR—saw increases of 5% to 10%.
According to the government’s Nonfarm Payrolls data, the U.S. economy added 175,000 jobs in April, fewer below the expert expectation of 245,000 and the 315,000 jobs gained the month before. This is when the rally took place. Additionally, it revealed that the jobless rate increased somewhat from 3.8% in March to 3.9%.
According to CME FedWatch data, market participants projected a 68% chance of at least one rate cut by September after the announcement, up from 57% a week earlier.
The decline in Bitcoin since the middle of March has been accompanied by growing worries among traders that the Federal Reserve will take a more aggressive approach in response to persistent inflation in the coming months. Some have even written off the possibility of a rate decrease this year. This has contributed to the US dollar index reaching its highest point since November, which is typically a warning sign for riskier assets like cryptocurrencies.
Along with the weak employment report, Coinbase analysts David Han and David Duong noted that policymakers at this week’s FOMC meeting tapered the pace of the central bank’s balance sheet runoff, also known as the quantitative tightening (QT) campaign, but expressed no interest in lowering interest rates. This was seen as a dovish indicator.
“We believe that the FOMC’s more dovish-than-expected statement has signaled the peak in the USD’s upward momentum against both FX [foreign currencies] and crypto pairs,” the authors concluded.
According to Arthur Hayes, the former CEO of BitMEX, bitcoin has probably bottomed at this week’s low of $56,000. However, he cautioned investors not to expect a quick return to the March highs but rather a gradual increase over the course of the next several months as markets moderate. “Did bitcoin hit a local low […] earlier this week,” Hayes responded. “Yes,” was his response. “I expect prices to bottom, chop, and begin a slow grind higher.”
He expressed his prediction for the future as “a rally to above $60,000 and then range-bound price action between $60,000 and $70,000 until August.”